KEY TAKEAWAYS

• China maintains a medium level of military influence in Brazil that is increasing, while Russia’s level of military influence is low but also increasing.
• China uses broad investments in strategic infrastructure and dual-use technology to create deep dependencies with military applications, while Russia uses targeted diplomatic engagements and niche technology transfers primarily for relationship maintenance.
• Although both countries show an increasing trend, China’s military influence in Brazil is increasing at a higher rate than Russia’s. This is because China’s trend is driven by a broad increase in activity across its diplomatic, informational, and economic instruments, while Russia’s is concentrated in a narrower set of diplomatic and niche technology instruments.
• Enabled by Brazil’s own foreign policy of strategic autonomy, China’s and Russia’s complementary, noncompetitive efforts may combine to reduce Brazil’s dependence on traditional Western military and economic partnerships.