KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The Arctic dimension of alignment among U.S. adversaries remains overwhelmingly bilateral rather than multilateral, with Russia and China the primary actors shaping security dynamics in the region. North Korea and Iran have little direct presence, capability, or strategic interest in Arctic affairs for the time being.
• Sino-Russian cooperation is increasingly shaping the OE in the Arctic but is mostly limited to the seas buttressing the Bering Strait. It is focused almost exclusively on economic and infrastructure projects, including joint cooperation in polar navigation, shipbuilding, and energy development.
• Russia dominates the Arctic strategically and mostly unilaterally, having strengthened its Arctic posture through expanded Northern Fleet capabilities, layered air and coastal defenses, and renewed investment in bases, icebreakers, and maritime infrastructure to secure the Northern Sea Route and protect its nearby sea-based nuclear forces.
• China continues to develop its Arctic presence through economic investment, polar research, shipping initiatives, and growing coordination with Russia, viewing the region as strategically valuable for energy development, alternative trade routes, and long-term scientific and dual-use technological advantages.
• U.S. adversaries’ presence in the Arctic will add a level of complexity to an already austere environment in which the U.S. Army may need to operate. China- and Russia-owned dual-use technology and infrastructure is likely already be present, challenging the Army’s ability to communicate, maneuver, and conduct seamless operations.