This periodic report assesses the contours of the emerging alliance of the United States’ four primary adversaries: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK). Based on open-source research, this ‘CRINK Alliance Project’ offers analysis of how this axis is disrupting or reshaping the Operational Environment. Its purpose is to help military leaders and policymakers discern whether, how, and when these countries’ interests align and diverge; anticipate potential friction points; and seize opportunities to counter their joint efforts to threaten the United States and its interests.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Mounting evidence suggests U.S. adversaries are shifting away from standard arms transfers and favoring licensed production and limited co-development of advanced weapon systems.
• Russia’s dependence on Chinese technology and receptivity toward joint ventures signals a new phase in bilateral defense cooperation. Iran and North Korea, challenged by international sanctions and viewed by Moscow and Beijing as junior partners in their nascent alliance, continue to leverage their exposure to Russian and Chinese systems to build out their own defense-industrial bases.
• Fragmentation persists because distrust over intellectual property, divergent time horizons, and each nation’s respective institutional reticence constrain full interoperability.
• These dynamics suggest that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will continue to find ways to evade institutional roadblocks posed by sanctions, and future U.S. forces may confront systems coproduced by multiple adversaries.