In This Running Estimate…

• Putin’s popularity dipped slightly to 85 percent, reflecting a decrease in the percentage of Russians who think the country is “moving in the right direction” and in support for the war, which dropped to 74 percent. Interestingly, support for a negotiated end to the conflict also fell to 61 percent from its August high of 66 percent.
• A grassroots movement of Russian soldiers’ wives and mothers called Put’ Domoy (“Way Home”) has openly protested, demanding the return from Ukraine of mobilized men—a rare challenge to the Kremlin—reflecting growing war-weariness.
• Ukrainian efforts to lower the draft age and rigorously enforce mobilization have been met with resistance. Reports of inequitable enforcement—from corruption in draft offices to alleged abuse by enlistment officers—have undermined trust in the government. By mid-2024, 46 percent of Ukrainians said there was no shame
  in dodging the draft, revealing a stark shift from the patriotic fervor of 2022.
• Ukrainian polling indicates war fatigue through a dramatic reversal in attitudes toward the war: in 2022, 73 percent supported fighting until victory, while in 2025 approximately 69 percent support a quick, negotiated end to the war. However, large majorities refuse to accept peace on Russia’s terms or territorial concessions, and 76 percent still believe Ukraine can win with sufficient Western support.