Nuclear Cooperation Among U.S. Adversaries Advancing But Still Limited

KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Russia is deepening nuclear cooperation with China, but residual mistrust and unaligned interests still limit how far this can translate into deeper military integration.
• Moscow is increasingly weaponizing civilian nuclear energy deals as geopolitical leverage—using its state-run Rosatom and long-term fuel-cycle dependencies to extend influence and Russian soft power across U.S. adversaries and states like India, Turkey and other middle powers.
• China and Russia are strengthening their nuclear cooperation but direct cooperation with Iran or North Korea is unlikely as such transfers would risk blowback and crisis entanglement for both Moscow and Beijing.
• Arms-control erosion, driven by uncertainty over New START, which places ceilings on Russia’s and the United States’ strategic nuclear forces, renewed United States debate over nuclear testing, and Russian nuclear threats linked to the Ukraine war, has thrust nuclear issues back to the center of strategic competition among U.S. adversaries.
• Even incremental coordination among U.S. adversaries on nuclear issues could complicate escalation dynamics for the U.S. Army, raise their risk tolerance, and shape future multidomain operations conducted under an implicit—or explicit—nuclear shadow.